(Trend chart of total vaccine injection volume in the United Kingdom and the United States)
More than half of the first quarter of 2021, the two established empires seem to have gradually gotten rid of the haze of the epidemic. Since the middle of last year, the number of confirmed cases has been rising sharply. By January of this year, the total number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 100 million, which is about a year after the first officially confirmed case of the new crown.
(Trend chart of confirmed cases and deaths worldwide)Although the number of confirmed cases is still on the rise, the large-scale distribution of vaccines has gradually brought the epidemic under control. In terms of the total number of vaccine injections, China actually ranks second, second only to the United States, where the epidemic is severe. With the gradual control of the epidemic and the full resumption of work and production in various industries, the global economy is expected to fully recover this year.
500,000 lives lost
The worsening of the epidemic in the United States did not happen overnight. The first wave of epidemics occurred in the spring of last year, and then the United States chose a national lockdown. However, due to the early release of the seal and the weak health awareness of the American people, there was a second wave between the end of summer and early autumn, although it was not too serious. However, this attitude paved the way for the subsequent third wave of the epidemic. In the past three months, the soaring number of confirmed cases in the third wave made the community and the medical system difficult, even unable to spend Easter and Christmas at ease
(U.S. epidemic situation, source network)
The third wave of epidemics caused more deaths than heart disease and cancer. Before April, the death rate from the epidemic was even high from influenza and pneumonia. All this actually implies Trump's inaction during his administration. While the deaths in other countries around the world are strictly controlled, the United States has risen to the top spot, with more than 500,000 deaths. This is also an important factor for Bidding to settle the epidemic after he took office.
As the epidemic improves, US economic data has increased visibly. The ISM manufacturing index PMI in February 2021 jumped to 60.8 from 58.7 in the previous month, implying an increase in the confidence index of the entire business environment. The expansion of factories means that the pace of economic recovery is starting. According to the ISM report, the difficulty of hiring workers is still a problem. Conversely, if the labor market can recover steadily, it can be worth looking forward to for the US economic growth this year.
(US Business Confidence Index)
Europe gradually unblocked
Most European countries adopted lockdown measures at the beginning of the year to deal with new infections and death threats. In the near future, some countries have begun to gradually relax restrictions, such as the United Kingdom and Germany.
On the day of Women`s Day, all schools in the UK reopened, and parents finally don`t have to stare at the noisy children at home every day. At the same time, starting from the same day, 2 people are allowed to dine in outdoor places such as parks. According to the unblocking road map announced by the British government in late February, there will be at least 5 weeks between the next two unblocking phases, and all social restrictions are expected to end on June 21.
Starting from March 29, outdoor gatherings of less than 6 people or two families can be held under strict conditions, outdoor sports facilities will be reopened, and outdoor organized sports activities will resume.
From April 12, non-essential retail shops, barber shops, libraries, museums, and public facilities including indoor swimming pools and gymnasiums will be reopened;
From May 17, the "6" limit for outdoor gatherings will be relaxed to 30; 6 or two families can have indoor gatherings, and this rule will also apply to bars.
On June 21, all blockade measures ended
The gradual control of the epidemic in the UK has a significant supporting effect on the pound sterling. After the UK completely left the European Union, the pound has always been on an upward trend. Last Friday it broke the 1.4 key to suppress the price area. England officially unblocked in March, the economy is expected to fully recover in 2021, and the future upward trend of the pound is still worth looking forward to.
Germany began to lift some restrictions in mid-December last year. In most German states, shops and museums are allowed to reopen, but the specific regulations on how many visitors are allowed depend on the local infection rate. People from one family can meet another family privately, but this is limited to five adults and children.
Similarly, starting on Women`s Day on March 8th, German cosmetics and nail shops, beauty salons, massage and tattoo studios are allowed to reopen.
From the trend chart of confirmed cases in European countries, it can be seen that the overall epidemic situation in Turkey, Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom and Belgium is out of control, and other countries have certain signs of rebound. For example, Portugal and Ireland still strictly enforce blockade measures.
#p##e#(Trend chart of confirmed cases in European countries)
On January 15, Portugal once again entered a new round of blockade. Mandatory remote work, while non-essential shops and services must be closed, cafes and restaurants are limited to take-out and home delivery. Most children`s schools are also closed, and the lockdown is expected to last at least until March 16.
Similarly, Ireland is also implementing the highest level of restrictions. Until April 5th. People must stay at home, and visitors are not allowed to enter private residences except for work, education or other necessary reasons. All non-essential shops, gyms, swimming pools and leisure facilities are closed. Restaurants, bars and cafes can only provide takeaway and delivery services.
Judging from these blockade measures, the economies of these EU member states may still be far from on track. This is why the European Central Bank needs to pay more attention to the progress of the epidemic than the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
The European Central Bank will release its latest policy statement and economic expectations on Thursday. In the past two weeks, the yields of 10-year treasury bonds in major western economies have all accelerated, including German and French treasury bonds. The market is worried that the rising cost of borrowing may hinder economic recovery. Although the European Central Bank officials have made a worrying speech before, but from the actual data, the European Central Bank only verbally appeased the market and did not actually increase debt purchases.
For the European Central Bank's interest rate decision this week, the core of increasing debt purchases is to stimulate the economy. However, in the context of the possibility of repeated epidemics, strict control of the epidemic is the more important link. Therefore, it is unlikely that the European Central Bank will increase its bond purchases this week.