According to the latest available data from the Wall Street Journal, the birth rate in Italy fell 21.6% year-on-year, France fell 13.5% year-on-year, and Japan fell 9.3% year-on-year.
Tomas Sobotka, a researcher at the Wittgenstein Center for Population and Global Human Capital in Vienna, said: [The fertility rate and the number of births in developed countries have fallen sharply. The longer the uncertainty of the epidemic lasts, the greater the lifetime impact on the fertility rate."
The Guttmacher Institute survey found that in the United States, one-third of women surveyed at the end of April and early May of last year wanted to delay or reduce births.
The Brookings Institution estimated in December that due to the epidemic, there will be 300,000 fewer babies born in the United States in 2021 than last year.
Using history as a mirror, the damage to fertility caused by huge emergencies may be permanent. The birth rate in the United States rose to its highest level in decades in 2007, but plummeted after the financial crisis in 2008, and has since declined year by year.
Ren Zeping: It is estimated that 30% of the population will be over 65 years old in 2033
On March 20, at the China Development High-level Forum 2021 hosted by the Development Research Center of the State Council and undertaken by the China Development Research Foundation, Ren Zeping, who had just taken up his post as the chief economist of Soochow Securities, pointed out that following the period from 1962 to 1976 The baby boom population withdraws from the labor market, and the aging problem will accelerate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" period. It is estimated that in 2033, more than 30% of China's population will be over 65 years old. A quarter of the population is the elderly population over 65, and it is imperative to delay retirement.
He suggested that measures should be taken in terms of personal tax deductions, economic subsidies, and childcare services to speed up the construction of a fertility support system.
The effect of letting go of the second child is not as good as expected, and the number of newborns is greatly reduced
Ren Zeping pointed out at the annual meeting that in recent years, the adjustment of the fertility policy has aroused widespread concern in the society. One fundamental reason is that in recent years, China`s fertility rate has fallen sharply, and the challenge of "fewer births" is coming.
He pointed out that after China fully liberalized the second child in 2016, China`s birth population actually continued to decline from 2017 to 2019, and the effect of the policy of liberalizing the second child was not as good as expected.
In his view, China's "fewer birth rate" challenge is roughly due to three reasons:
1. The number of main women of childbearing age has decreased drastically. Since 2016, the number of women of childbearing age in China has been decreasing, and this trend will continue in the future, which means that the challenge of "fewer births" in China will become more severe.
2. The cost of childbirth has risen. China's education, medical care, and housing are inhibiting people's fertility, which requires some adjustments in related policies.
3. The concept of the new generation of young people has changed. The new generation of young people pursue independence and freedom. The post-90s and 00s are modern people. They are no longer married and barren. Developed countries have also followed a similar path. They pursue personal independence, freedom, and enjoyment, and resist "996".
Ren Zeping pointed out that China`s "fewer births" issue has both regular factors in economic and social development and inadequate domestic policy adjustments. Appropriate adjustments to the latter can change the slope of the population decline curve.
The fertility cliff accelerates aging, delaying retirement becomes inevitable
He emphasized that the key to China's population problem is not the total amount, but the structure.
There was a baby boom in China from 1962 to 1976. This group of people born between 1962 and 1976 determined the growth and main trend of China's economy. The high growth of China's economy was the result of this group of people.
Later, at the end of the 1970s, China's fertility policy was greatly adjusted, from encouraging birth to family planning.
He emphasized that China`s aging and declining birthrate are different from those in Europe and the United States. The aging and declining birth rate in Europe and the United States have taken 20-30 years and are slowly coming, while China`s aging and declining birth rate are coming at an accelerated pace. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China's aging, declining birth rate and the curve of Europe and the United States are very different. "Its top is sharp, not round."
It is worth noting that this group of people born in 1962 is now 59 years old, and they are beginning to enter the aging stage, which shows that China`s main labor force is exiting the labor market at an accelerated rate, and with the improvement of health and medical conditions, The era of improvement and longevity is coming, because it is inevitable to extend the retirement age. Of course, China may adopt a gradual approach to delay retirement.
It is estimated that the population may drop to 800 million in 2100
According to Ren Zeping`s deduction on the future of an aging and declining society: China`s population will shrink sharply by 2050, and the population will drop to 800 million by 2100. More importantly, China`s aging is accelerating, and China will have 30% by 2033. The above population will reach 65 years of age or older. In 2060, one-third of China's population will be an elderly population of 65 years or older. This challenge is very serious.
Ren Zeping believes that after the arrival of aging, it will bring about an increase in the social dependency ratio, an increase in the pension burden, a significant increase in social security pressure, and a rise in government debt. This will be a decline in China's potential growth rate.
In terms of policy recommendations, Ren Zeping suggested to speed up the construction of a fertility support system. We can learn from the experience of developed countries and take measures in the following five areas:
1. Carry out individual tax deductions and economic subsidies.
2. Increase the supply of childcare services.
3. Improve the protection of women's employment rights.
4. Guarantee the equal rights of unmarried childbirth.
5. Increase expenditures related to education, medical care, and social security, so that everyone can afford to support them.